Oregon Senate 2026 Dem Primary
The Oregon Senate dem primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Jeff Merkley the heavy favorite at 97%, with Paul D. Wells at 3%. Jeff Merkley is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jeff Merkley (incumbent) — 97%
- Paul D. Wells — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.