Texas Senate 2026 General Election
The Texas Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat James Talarico edges Republican Ken Paxton, 52% to 48%. James Talarico leads the field in reported fundraising and Ken Paxton has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- James Talarico — 52%
- Ken Paxton — 48%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.