Texas Senate 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas Senate dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: James Talarico edges Jasmine Crockett, 50% to 49% in a 3-candidate field. James Talarico leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- James Talarico — 50%
- Jasmine Crockett — 49%
- Ahmad R. Hassan — 1%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.