Iowa Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The Iowa Senate rep primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Ashley Hinson at 70%, ahead of Jim Carlin at 30%. Ashley Hinson leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ashley Hinson — 70%
- Jim Carlin — 30%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.