Montana Senate 2026 Dem Primary

The Montana Senate dem primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Reilly Neill at 72%, ahead of Alani Bankhead at 14% in a 5-candidate field. Reilly Neill leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Reilly Neill — 72%
2. Alani Bankhead — 14%
3. Michael Black Wolf — 5%
4. Michael Hummert — 5%
5. Christopher Kehoe — 5%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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