Montana Senate 2026 Dem Primary

The Montana Senate dem primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Reilly Neill the clear favorite at 86%, ahead of Alani Bankhead at 4% in a 5-candidate field. Reilly Neill leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Reilly Neill — 86%
2. Alani Bankhead — 4%
3. Michael Black Wolf — 3%
4. Michael Hummert — 3%
5. Christopher Kehoe — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model