Arkansas Senate 2026 Dem Primary
The Arkansas Senate dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Hallie Shoffner the heavy favorite at 97%, with Ethan Dunbar at 3%. Hallie Shoffner leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Hallie Shoffner — 97%
- Ethan Dunbar — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.