Minnesota Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The Minnesota Senate rep primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model favors Michele Tafoya at 57%, ahead of Adam Schwarze at 24% in a 10-candidate field. Michele Tafoya leads the field in reported fundraising and Adam Schwarze has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Michele Tafoya — 57%
- Adam Schwarze — 24%
- Royce White — 3%
- Tom Weiler — 2%
- Mark York — 2%
- Ray Petersen — 2%
- Alycia Gruenhagen — 2%
- Mike Ruoho — 2%
+2 more candidates
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.