Minnesota Senate 2026 Rep Primary

The Minnesota Senate rep primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model makes Michele Tafoya the clear favorite at 76%, ahead of Adam Schwarze at 4% in a 11-candidate field. Michele Tafoya leads the field in reported fundraising and Adam Schwarze has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Michele Tafoya — 76%
2. Adam Schwarze — 4%
3. Royce White — 2%
4. Mark York — 2%
5. Ray Petersen — 2%
6. Alycia Gruenhagen — 2%
7. Mike Ruoho — 2%
8. Ahmad R. Hassan — 2%

+3 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model