West Virginia Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The West Virginia Senate rep primary is scheduled for May 12, 2026. The model makes Shelley Moore Capito the clear favorite at 86%, ahead of Tom Willis at 4% in a 6-candidate field. Shelley Moore Capito is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Shelley Moore Capito (incumbent) — 86%
- Tom Willis — 4%
- Janet McNulty — 3%
- Alex Gaaserud — 3%
- Bryan McKinney — 3%
- David Purkey — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.