South Dakota Senate 2026 Rep Primary
The South Dakota Senate rep primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Mike Rounds the heavy favorite at 97%, with Justin McNeal at 3%. Mike Rounds is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mike Rounds (incumbent) — 97%
- Justin McNeal — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.