Florida Senate 2026 General Election
The Florida Senate general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Ashley Moody at 72%, ahead of Democrat Alex Vindman at 28%. Ashley Moody is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ashley Moody (incumbent) — 72%
- Alex Vindman — 28%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.