Washington 10th — House 2026 Primary

The Washington 10th — House primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Democrat Marilyn Strickland the clear favorite at 78%, ahead of Democrat Alex Scheel at 5% in a 6-candidate field. Marilyn Strickland is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Marilyn Strickland (incumbent) — 78%
2. Alex Scheel — 5%
3. Kurtis Engle (Union) — 5%
4. Derek Maynes — 5%
5. Adam Arafat — 4%
6. Chris D. Chung — 4%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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