Washington 5th — House 2026 General Election
The Washington 5th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Michael Baumgartner the clear favorite at 80%, ahead of Democrat Carmela Conroy at 20%. Michael Baumgartner is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Michael Baumgartner (incumbent) — 80%
- Carmela Conroy — 20%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.