Washington 5th — House 2026 General Election
The Washington 5th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Michael Baumgartner the heavy favorite at 100%, with Democrat Carmela Conroy at 0%. Michael Baumgartner is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Michael Baumgartner (incumbent) — 100%
- Carmela Conroy — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.