Washington 4th — House 2026 Primary

The Washington 4th — House primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Amanda McKinney edges Republican Matt Boehnke, 35% to 33% in a 12-candidate field. Amanda McKinney leads the field in reported fundraising and Matt Boehnke has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Amanda McKinney — 35%
  2. Matt Boehnke — 33%
  3. John Duresky — 13%
  4. Jerrod Sessler — 6%
  5. Devin Poore — 3%
  6. John Hughs — 2%
  7. Ken Vaz — 1%
  8. Elpidia Saavedra — 1%

+4 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model