Washington 4th — House 2026 Primary

The Washington 4th — House primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Amanda McKinney edges Republican Jerrod Sessler, 29% to 22% in a 11-candidate field. Amanda McKinney leads the field in reported fundraising and Matt Boehnke has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Amanda McKinney — 29%
2. Jerrod Sessler — 22%
3. John Duresky — 21%
4. Matt Boehnke — 20%
5. Favian Valencia — 1%
6. Devin Poore — 1%
7. John Hughs — 1%
8. Ken Vaz — 1%

+3 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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