Virginia 9th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Virginia 9th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model sees a close race: Adam Murphy edges Joy Powers, 51% to 47% in a 3-candidate field. Joy Powers leads the field in reported fundraising and Adam Murphy has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Adam Murphy — 51%
- Joy Powers — 47%
- Douglas Crockett — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.