Virginia 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Virginia 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes John McGuire the heavy favorite at 95%, with Melanie Lucero at 5%. John McGuire is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- John McGuire (incumbent) — 95%
- Melanie Lucero — 5%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.