Virginia 5th — House 2026 General Election
The Virginia 5th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican John McGuire at 74%, ahead of Democrat Tom Perriello at 26%. John McGuire is the incumbent and Tom Perriello leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- John McGuire (incumbent) — 74%
- Tom Perriello — 26%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.