Virginia 5th — House 2026 General Election
The Virginia 5th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican John McGuire at 60%, ahead of Democrat Tom Perriello at 40%. John McGuire is the incumbent and Tom Perriello leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- John McGuire (incumbent) — 60%
- Tom Perriello — 40%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.