Virginia 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Virginia 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Shannon Taylor the clear favorite at 83%, ahead of Jason Knapp at 4% in a 7-candidate field. Shannon Taylor leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Shannon Taylor — 83%
2. Jason Knapp — 4%
3. Salaam Bhatti — 3%
4. Mel Tull — 3%
5. Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs — 3%
6. Tim Cywinski — 2%
7. Ericka Kopp — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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