Utah 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Utah 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model sees a close race: Ben McAdams edges Nate Blouin, 49% to 45% in a 6-candidate field. Ben McAdams leads the field in reported fundraising and Nate Blouin has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Ben McAdams — 49%
2. Nate Blouin — 45%
3. Michael Farrell — 2%
4. Liban Mohamed — 2%
5. Eva Lopez Chavez — 1%
6. Luis Villarreal — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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