Texas 38th — House 2026 General Election
The Texas 38th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Melissa McDonough edges Republican Jon Bonck, 50% to 50%. Melissa McDonough leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Melissa McDonough — 50%
- Jon Bonck — 50%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.