Texas 38th — House 2026 General Election
The Texas 38th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Jon Bonck at 71%, ahead of Democrat Melissa McDonough at 29%. Melissa McDonough leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jon Bonck — 71%
- Melissa McDonough — 29%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.