Texas 33th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas 33th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Kurt Schwab the clear favorite at 87%, ahead of Patrick Gillespie at 3% in a 5-candidate field. Kurt Schwab leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Kurt Schwab — 87%
2. Patrick Gillespie — 3%
3. John Sims — 3%
4. Monte Mitchell — 3%
5. Payton Jackson — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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