Texas 31th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas 31th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes John Carter the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Steve Dowell at 2% in a 10-candidate field. John Carter is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. John Carter (incumbent) — 79%
2. Steve Dowell — 2%
3. Raymond Hamden — 2%
4. Vince Offer — 2%
5. Valentina Gomez — 2%
6. Abhiram Garapati — 2%
7. David Berry — 2%
8. Elvis Lossa — 2%

+2 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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