Texas 23th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas 23th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Santos Limon the clear favorite at 88%, ahead of Katy Padilla Stout at 5% in a 4-candidate field. Santos Limon leads the field in reported fundraising and Katy Padilla Stout has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Santos Limon — 88%
- Katy Padilla Stout — 5%
- Gretel Enck — 4%
- Bruce Richardson — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.