Texas 20th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas 20th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Joaquin Castro the heavy favorite at 94%, with John Atwood at 3% in a 3-candidate field. Joaquin Castro is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Joaquin Castro (incumbent) — 94%
- John Atwood — 3%
- Kendra Wilkerson — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.