Texas 18th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas 18th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Christian Menefee edges Al Green, 51% to 48% in a 3-candidate field. Christian Menefee is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Al Green has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Christian Menefee (incumbent) — 51%
- Al Green (incumbent) — 48%
- Gretchen Brown — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.