Texas 17th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas 17th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Casey Shepard the heavy favorite at 93%, with James Gordon Mitchell at 4% in a 3-candidate field. Casey Shepard leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Casey Shepard — 93%
- James Gordon Mitchell — 4%
- Milah Flores — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.