Texas 17th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas 17th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes James Gordon Mitchell the clear favorite at 87%, ahead of Casey Shepard at 9% in a 3-candidate field. James Gordon Mitchell leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- James Gordon Mitchell — 87%
- Casey Shepard — 9%
- Milah Flores — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.