Texas 9th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Texas 9th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model has Alex Mealer narrowly ahead of Briscoe Cain, 52% to 38% in a 8-candidate field. Alex Mealer leads the field in reported fundraising and Briscoe Cain has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Alex Mealer — 52%
2. Briscoe Cain — 38%
3. Jaimy Blanco — 2%
4. Dan Mims — 2%
5. Steve Stockman — 2%
6. Terry Thain — 2%
7. Michael Curran — 2%
8. Crystal DeLeon-Sarmiento — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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