Texas 6th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Texas 6th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Jake Ellzey the heavy favorite at 93%, with Brian Stahl at 4% in a 3-candidate field. Jake Ellzey is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jake Ellzey (incumbent) — 93%
- Brian Stahl — 4%
- James Buford — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.