Texas 4th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Texas 4th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Pat Fallon the heavy favorite at 97%, with Don Horn at 3%. Pat Fallon is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Pat Fallon (incumbent) — 97%
- Don Horn — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.