Texas 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Texas 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Jason Pearce the clear favorite at 84%, ahead of Andrew Rubell at 16%. Jason Pearce leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jason Pearce — 84%
- Andrew Rubell — 16%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.