Texas 3rd — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Texas 3rd — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Keith Self the heavy favorite at 91%, with Mark Newgent at 9%. Keith Self is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Keith Self (incumbent) — 91%
- Mark Newgent — 9%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.