Texas 2nd — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Texas 2nd — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Dan Crenshaw the clear favorite at 89%, ahead of Steve Toth at 6% in a 4-candidate field. Dan Crenshaw is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Dan Crenshaw (incumbent) — 89%
- Steve Toth — 6%
- Nicholas Lee Plumb — 3%
- Martin Etwop — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.