Tennessee 5th — House 2026 General Election
The Tennessee 5th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Andy Ogles at 73%, ahead of Democrat Chaz Molder at 27%. Andy Ogles is the incumbent and Chaz Molder leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Andy Ogles (incumbent) — 73%
- Chaz Molder — 27%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.