South Carolina 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary

The South Carolina 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026. The model has Mark Smith narrowly ahead of Sam McCown, 50% to 12% in a 10-candidate field. Sam McCown leads the field in reported fundraising and Mark Smith has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Mark Smith — 50%
  2. Sam McCown — 12%
  3. Jenny Costa Honeycutt — 7%
  4. Jay Byars — 5%
  5. Tyler Dykes — 5%
  6. Alex Pelbath — 5%
  7. Dan Brown — 4%
  8. Kendal Ludden — 4%

+2 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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