Pennsylvania 16th — House 2026 General Election
The Pennsylvania 16th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Mike Kelly the heavy favorite at 100%, with Democrat Justin Wagner at 0%. Mike Kelly is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mike Kelly (incumbent) — 100%
- Justin Wagner — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.