Oregon 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Oregon 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Val Hoyle the heavy favorite at 92%, with Melissa Bird at 5% in a 3-candidate field. Val Hoyle is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Val Hoyle (incumbent) — 92%
- Melissa Bird — 5%
- Daniel Bahlen — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.