Oklahoma 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Oklahoma 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 16, 2026. The model makes Jena Nelson the clear favorite at 85%, ahead of Trey Martin at 15%. Jena Nelson leads the field in reported fundraising and Trey Martin has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jena Nelson — 85%
- Trey Martin — 15%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.