Ohio 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Ohio 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for May 5, 2026. The model has Brian Shaver narrowly ahead of Martin Heberling III, 46% to 24% in a 4-candidate field. Brian Shaver leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Brian Shaver — 46%
2. Martin Heberling III — 24%
3. Daniel Burket — 17%
4. Scott Tabor — 13%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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