New York 24th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 24th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Alissa Ellman the heavy favorite at 96%, with Diana Kastenbaum at 4%. Alissa Ellman leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Alissa Ellman — 96%
- Diana Kastenbaum — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.