New York 23th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 23th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Aaron Gies the clear favorite at 89%, ahead of Kevin Stocker at 11%. Aaron Gies leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Aaron Gies — 89%
- Kevin Stocker — 11%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.