New York 21th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 21th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Blake Gendebien the heavy favorite at 97%, with Stuart Amoriell at 3%. Blake Gendebien leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Blake Gendebien — 97%
- Stuart Amoriell — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.