New York 17th — House 2026 General Election
The New York 17th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Mike Lawler at 68%, ahead of Democrat Cait Conley at 32%. Mike Lawler is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Cait Conley has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mike Lawler (incumbent) — 68%
- Cait Conley — 32%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.