New York 17th — House 2026 General Election
The New York 17th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Democrat Cait Conley at 58%, ahead of Republican Mike Lawler at 42%. Mike Lawler leads the field in reported fundraising, Cait Conley has the most tracked endorsements, and incumbent Mike Lawler trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Cait Conley — 58%
- Mike Lawler (incumbent) — 42%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.