New York 17th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 17th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model favors Cait Conley at 64%, ahead of Beth Davidson at 29% in a 5-candidate field. Cait Conley leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Cait Conley — 64%
- Beth Davidson — 29%
- Effie Phillips-Staley — 3%
- Mike Sacks — 2%
- John Cappello — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.