New York 17th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The New York 17th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model favors Cait Conley at 59%, ahead of Beth Davidson at 35% in a 5-candidate field. Cait Conley leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Cait Conley — 59%
2. Beth Davidson — 35%
3. Mike Sacks — 2%
4. Effie Phillips-Staley — 2%
5. John Cappello — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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