New York 17th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The New York 17th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Cait Conley the clear favorite at 76%, ahead of Beth Davidson at 17% in a 5-candidate field. Cait Conley leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Cait Conley — 76%
  2. Beth Davidson — 17%
  3. Effie Phillips-Staley — 2%
  4. Mike Sacks — 2%
  5. John Cappello — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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