New York 15th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 15th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Ritchie Torres the heavy favorite at 92%, with Michael Blake at 5% in a 3-candidate field. Ritchie Torres is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ritchie Torres (incumbent) — 92%
- Michael Blake — 5%
- Jose Vega — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.