New York 14th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 14th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez the heavy favorite at 94%, with Marty Dolan at 3% in a 3-candidate field. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (incumbent) — 94%
- Marty Dolan — 3%
- Felipe Garcia — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.