New York 13th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 13th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Adriano Espaillat the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Darializa Avila Chevalier at 16% in a 4-candidate field. Adriano Espaillat is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Adriano Espaillat (incumbent) — 79%
- Darializa Avila Chevalier — 16%
- Oscar Romero — 2%
- Theo Chino-Tavarez — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.