New York 12th — House 2026 General Election
The New York 12th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Micah Lasher the heavy favorite at 100%, with Republican Caroline Shinkle at 0%. Micah Lasher leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Micah Lasher — 100%
- Caroline Shinkle — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.