New York 12th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The New York 12th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model sees a close race: Alex Bores edges Micah Lasher, 33% to 30% in a 8-candidate field. George Conway leads the field in reported fundraising and Alex Bores has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Alex Bores — 33%
2. Micah Lasher — 30%
3. George Conway — 8%
4. Jack Schlossberg — 7%
5. Laura Dunn — 6%
6. Chris Diep — 5%
7. Nina Schwalbe — 5%
8. Patrick Timmons — 5%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model