New York 12th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The New York 12th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model sees a close race: Micah Lasher edges Alex Bores, 36% to 30% in a 8-candidate field. George Conway leads the field in reported fundraising and Alex Bores has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Micah Lasher — 36%
2. Alex Bores — 30%
3. George Conway — 7%
4. Jack Schlossberg — 6%
5. Laura Dunn — 5%
6. Chris Diep — 5%
7. Nina Schwalbe — 5%
8. Patrick Timmons — 5%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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