New York 12th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 12th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model has Alex Bores narrowly ahead of George Conway, 45% to 26% in a 8-candidate field. George Conway leads the field in reported fundraising and Alex Bores has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Alex Bores — 45%
- George Conway — 26%
- Micah Lasher — 15%
- Jack Schlossberg — 4%
- Nina Schwalbe — 2%
- Laura Dunn — 2%
- Chris Diep — 2%
- Patrick Timmons — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.