New York 3rd — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New York 3rd — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Tom Suozzi the heavy favorite at 96%, with Danielle Welch at 4%. Tom Suozzi is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tom Suozzi (incumbent) — 96%
- Danielle Welch — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.