New Mexico 1st — House 2026 General Election
The New Mexico 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Melanie Stansbury the heavy favorite at 100%, with Republican Didi Okpareke at 0%. Melanie Stansbury is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Melanie Stansbury (incumbent) — 100%
- Didi Okpareke — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.