New Jersey 3rd — House 2026 General Election
The New Jersey 3rd — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Herb Conaway the clear favorite at 81%, ahead of Republican Michael McGuire at 19%. Herb Conaway is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Herb Conaway (incumbent) — 81%
- Michael McGuire — 19%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.